'Sell in May, go away' is a popular market adage. But 'Don't sell any new shares in May' is the best kept secret of Dalal Street that's set to break. Sample this: the last four General Election election cycles starting 2004 have not seen a single initial public offering (IPO) launch during the month of May.
'Business families like the Godrej group are increasingly realising that an amicable settlement is better.' 'Else, the wealth of all shareholders gets destroyed.'
Even as net flows into smallcap funds in March turned negative, for the first time in 30 months, they remained a big draw for new investors. The smallcap fund category saw a net of 360,000 investment accounts, or folios, getting added last month, the second-most among all active equity categories. Smallcap funds' continued traction could be driven by their strong performance across timeframes, say experts.
Market players attribute the rally in small and midcaps to flows from retail investors and domestic institutions.
Mutual funds (MFs) scooped up smallcap shares across sectors such as healthcare, banking and financial services in March 2024 amid a near 4.5 per cent fall in key smallcap indices. Aster DM Healthcare, NLC India, and Aavas Financiers topped the list of most-bought stocks in the Rs 10,000-40,000 crore market capitalisation (mcap) bracket, according to a study by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Aster and Aavas had corrected by 13 per cent and 10 per cent in March, respectively, while NLC India ended the month with a 2.5 per cent gain.
HDFC Bank's latest shareholding data showed that the room for foreign investment has fallen just 5 basis points short of the threshold set by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to fully include the stock in its indices. Currently, the index provider has applied an adjustment factor of 0.5 since the foreign room is less than 25 per cent. Removal of the adjustment factor will result in inflows of a massive $4.8 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) into HDFC Bank, according to Brian Freitas, a New Zealand-based analyst with Periscope Analytics.
Smallcap mutual funds recorded net outflows for the first time in 30 months in March as investors pulled out money after the markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), warned against "froth" in the mid and smallcap space. Active equity mutual fund (MF) schemes raked in Rs 22,600 crore in March. The March inflow is 16 per cent lower than the two-year high inflow of Rs 26,860 crore in February, shows data from the Association of MFs in India (Amfi).
'Exposure to small and midcap stocks exceeded desired levels in many portfolios, prompting rebalancing.'
Retail investors now own a larger share of smallcap companies than they did a year ago, thanks to their conviction in mutual fund (MF) schemes focused on this segment. Data from Capitaline shows that MFs' average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 Index stood at 9 per cent at the end of the October-December quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), up from 7.76 per cent in the same quarter of 2022-23.
Eighty per cent, or 60 of the 75 companies that made their debut on the mainboard this financial year, ended their listing day with gains.
The number of dematerialised (demat) accounts - required to hold shares and other securities in electronics format - crossed the 150-million mark for the first time in March. In March, 3.12 million new demat accounts were added despite a spike in market volatility, taking the total count to 151.4 million. The milestone has come 19 months after the total number of demat accounts hit the 100-million mark, a sign that more domestic households are taking to direct equity investing.
Shares of Avenue Supermarts (DMart) have rallied 15 per cent in the past month, even as the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty has remained flat. The stock has garnered favourable commentary from both fundamental and technical analysts after three years of poor performance. "DMart has reached its first 52-week high since October 2021, taking off from solid base formations.
Small and midcap schemes may impose restrictions on redemptions, cap employee withdrawals, and increase the exit load, while ensuring a proportionate liquidation of the portfolio during market crises to safeguard the interests of all investors. These measures have been outlined in the investor protection policies recently put out by mutual fund (MF) trustees. The policies for small and midcap schemes were prepared by MF trustees following directives from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) earlier this month.
Equity fundraising through initial public offerings (IPOs) rose 20 per cent during the financial year 2023-24 (FY24). During the period, 76 Indian corporates raised Rs 61,915 crore through main board IPOs, compared to Rs 52,116 crore mobilised by 37 IPOs in 2022-23, as disclosed by PRIME Database. However, if one excludes the mega Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) IPO, which came out in 2022-23, IPO mobilisation increased by 58 per cent from last year.
The initial public offerings (IPOs) by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) hit a new high in 2023-2024 (FY24). In this financial year, data from the Prime Database showed that 190 companies raised Rs 5,579 crore through the SME IPO route. This financial year's tally bettered the fundraising in the previous financial year when 125 companies raised Rs 2,235 crore.
Real estate investment trusts (Reits) are in talks with regulatory bodies - the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) - to seek changes in regulations that will allow easier access to capital. The Indian Reits Association (IRA) said it has approached the market regulator seeking to get classified as an 'equity' asset, which will open the path for their inclusion in equity indices and also make investment by mutual funds (MFs) easier. The association is also in active discussions with the RBI to allow banks to lend to a Reit.
Equity fundraising through initial public offerings (IPOs) rose 20 per cent during the financial year 2023-24 (FY24). During the period, 76 Indian corporates raised Rs 61,915 crore through main board IPOs, compared to Rs 52,116 crore mobilised by 37 IPOs in 2022-23, as disclosed by PRIME Database. However, if one excludes the mega Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) IPO, which came out in 2022-23, IPO mobilisation increased by 58 per cent from last year.
Equity mutual fund (MF) schemes have raked in Rs 46,200 crore in net lump-sum inflows in the past six months (ended February 2024), almost thrice the inflow in the previous six-month period.
The froth in the small and midcap (SMID) space is limited to a few pockets, but regulatory scrutiny could lead to sustained volatility, observe India's top-drawer wealth managers. They add that they have been advising clients to reduce their exposure to smallcaps. Anand Rathi Wealth, which manages investor wealth through mutual funds (MFs), reports that its exposure to smallcap stocks, both through MFs and directly, has decreased by nearly 7 percentage points in the past few months, now standing at 23 per cent.
In addition to regulatory actions against small and midcaps, tighter liquidity conditions are another headwind that stocks are facing this month. Market observers say advance tax outflows and capital gains-related adjustments will weigh on the markets in the near term.
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